You probably know that RAM prices have skyrocketed in recent months, which will have a major negative impact on smartphones in the coming months. Analyst firm Counterpoint has revised its predictions for 2026 – instead of level shipments, the firm is now forecasting that the global smartphone market will shrink by 2.1%.
The worrying thing is that the punishing rise in memory prices will persist – Counterpoint warns that prices can go up by another 40% through Q2 2026.
Global Smartphone Market Share and YoY Growth by Key OEM, 2026(E)
Currently, the Bill of Materials (BoM, i.e. the component cost) for low-end phones is 25% higher than at the beginning of the year. Mid-range and high-end phones are seeing 15% and 10% increases. If the Q2 forecast pans out, the BoMs can rise further by 8%-15%.
Counterpoint expects that smartphone companies will see lower shipments across the board. Oppo and vivo were originally predicted to ship more phones next year, the revised prediction is for a decline. Xiaomi and especially Honor will decline more than expected.
The big players – Apple and Samsung – will feel the pain as well. It won’t be as bad for them, however. Senior Analyst Yang Wang says: “Apple and Samsung are best positioned to weather the next few quarters. But it will be tough for others that don’t have as much wiggle room to manage market share versus profit margins. We will see this play out especially with the Chinese OEMs as the year progresses.”
Smartphone Shipment YoY Growth Forecasts and Revisions, 2026
We are already seeing smartphone makers adapt to the rising costs by restructuring their product lineups and cutting specs. “In some models, we are seeing downgrades of components like camera modules and periscope solutions, displays, audio components and, of course, memory configurations,” said Senior Analyst Shenghao Bai.
Analysts warn that the Average Selling Price (ASP) for 2026 will be higher than expected (original prediction: +3.9%, new prediction: +6.9%). This means that smartphone makers will likely try to push users towards more premium models, which are relatively less impacted by the rising RAM prices (since RAM makes up a smaller portion of their BoM).